As anticipation of the 2024 Presidential Election heats up, preliminary polls are starting to surface. Emerson College most recently released a poll showing Trump towering over the crowded 10-way GOP field. Although Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis hasn’t formally announced a presidential bid yet, he’s actively preparing for a likely campaign and currently polls in second. Trump and DeSantis are the only two contenders to break double-digits: Trump with 55 percent of the vote and DeSantis with 25 percent. Additionally, in a hypothetical general election matchup, Trump beats Biden 46 percent to 42 percent, according to the poll. While there’s no way to predict the 2024 outcome so early on, we can confidently predict that the Republican primary will be crowded as GOP leaders continue to toss their hats in the ring; most recently, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy.
By Max Greenwood; February 28, 2023
Former President Donald Trump is still the heavy favorite to win the GOP’s 2024 nomination, according to a new Emerson College poll.
In a hypothetical 10-way Republican presidential primary, Trump scores 55 percent of the vote, the poll found, putting him 30 points ahead of his closest rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who stands at 25 percent support.
No other candidate breaks double-digits. Former Vice President Mike Pence takes third place with just 8 percent of the vote, while former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, who became the first major Republican candidate to challenge Trump for the GOP nod earlier this month, finishes with just 5 percent support.
The Emerson College poll is only the latest to show Trump towering over an expectedly crowded Republican primary field as he seeks to reclaim the White House following his 2020 loss to President Biden.
DeSantis hasn’t formally announced a presidential bid yet, though he’s actively preparing for a likely campaign. Recent polls show him leading Trump in hypothetical head-to-head matchups, though Trump remains the frontrunner when other candidates are included.
The former president’s strength among GOP voters stems from his continued support among voters without college degrees, according to the poll. Seventy-two percent of voters whose highest level of education is high school or less say they are backing Trump.
DeSantis, meanwhile, fares better among college-educated voters, as well as voters over 65 years old, Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. The Florida governor now leads Trump among those older voters 43 percent to 39 percent.
Still, in a hypothetical general election matchup, Trump tops Biden 46 percent to 42 percent, according to the poll. DeSantis, by comparison, trails the incumbent president by a 4-point margin, while Haley falls short against Biden by a 3-point margin.
The Emerson College poll surveyed 1,060 registered voters via landline and online panels from Feb. 24-25. It has a margin of error of +/-2.9 percentage points.
Photo: Emerson College